A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
